Orr out 13th (5 off the Money)

Hand Breakdown: Kasey Orr Busts in 13th Place

Tournament: Peppermill Saturday $10k Guaranteed

Blinds: 1,000/2,500 with a 2,500 Big Blind Ante

Players Remaining: 13

The Setup

• Kasey Orr (Seat 3):50,000 chips (~20 big blinds)

• Player in Seat 7 (UTG):Opens for 6,000

• Action:Kasey, holding A♦K♣, shoves all-in for his remaining 50,000. The action folds back around to the UTG opener, who snap-calls with A♠J♠.

The Flop

Board: J♣J♥8♦

The flop delivers a crushing blow to Kasey as the UTG player flops trips with Jacks. The board leaves Kasey drawing thin, needing a King on the turn or river to stay alive.

The Turn and River

Turn: 6♦

River: 3♠

No help for Kasey as the board bricks out, sealing his elimination in 13th place.

Stack Analysis

• Kasey Orr:Started the hand with 20 big blinds, a reasonable shove stack with A♦K♣against an early position raiser.

• Seat 7 (UTG):Covered Kasey and made the call with a dominated A♠J♠, which got there on the flop.

GTO Strategy Analysis

• Kasey’s Shove with A♦K♣:

From the hijack position, A♦K♣is a standard shove with 20 big blinds. According to GTO strategy:

• A♦K♣is at the top of the shoving range in this spot.

• Other hands in the shoving range might include suited broadway cards (KQs, QJs), small pairs (66+), and suited Ax hands (A2s-A5s) for balance.

• This shove puts pressure on the opener, who must call correctly only with hands strong enough to withstand Kasey’s range.

• Seat 7’s Call with A♠J♠:

The UTG player’s call with A♠J♠deviates from GTO strategy.

• Against a hijack 20-big-blind shove, A♠J♠is slightly behind the shoving range, which includes stronger Ax hands like AQ+, pairs, and premium suited connectors.

• GTO suggests folding A♠J♠in this spot due to reverse implied odds and the high likelihood of being dominated.

• Calling should be reserved for hands like QQ+, AKo, AQo, and suited broadways like AKs, AQsto protect the range.

• Exploitative Consideration:

If the UTG player believed Kasey was shoving wider than GTO suggests, A♠J♠becomes a more defensible call. However, with no indication of that dynamic, this call is marginal at best.

Outcome

Kasey Orr’s elimination in 13th place was a tough beat, as his premium hand was ahead preflop but failed to hold. The pot added to the UTG player’s growing stack, positioning them as a threat heading into the final stages of the tournament.

Key Takeaway: Kasey’s shove aligns with optimal GTO play, putting maximum pressure on the UTG opener with a strong hand. However, the UTG player’s call with A♠J♠ was questionable and paid off due to the variance of poker, highlighting the unpredictable nature of tournament poker.